Strikeforce ‘Lawler vs. Shields’ Preview

Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith

The Breakdown: Captain Comeback meets Captain Cannabis, as Smith -- MMA’s answer to Doug Flutie -- takes on the talented and always unpredictable Diaz (19-7, 1 NC). What really makes this fight attractive is Diaz’s penchant for getting after it on the feet, something on which Smith (16-5, 1 NC) must rely since his ground game is no match for what Diaz brings to the table. However, Diaz’s fight IQ is very underrated by the masses, which focus on his out-of-cage follies instead of the brilliance he brings inside it. As long as Diaz remembers he has Smith’s number on the mat, he’ll have the edge.

The X Factor: Diaz has never been shy about trading on the feet. That penchant for getting into firefights could cost him dearly against Smith, who has an unnatural knack for scoring knockouts when the chips are down. While Diaz has stood unflinchingly with brawlers like Robbie Lawler, that risk is unnecessary here given the disparity in the grappling department. Regardless, that’s a fact Diaz may choose to ignore come fight time, and it will leave Smith right where he wants to be.

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The Bottom Line: Sooner or later, Smith’s luck was bound to run out, and Diaz is not the type to let anyone back into a fight. Some early fireworks on the feet will give way to a takedown from Diaz and a clinical grappling dissection, with Smith playing the cadaver.