Preview: UFC on ESPN 58 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Gabriella Fernandes (8-3, 0-2 UFC) vs. Carli Judice (3-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Fernandes (-205), Judice (+170)

Two fights in, Fernandes has had a surprisingly rough go of it inside of the UFC. The Brazilian looked like a prospect who could hit the ground running on the back of an effective range striking game—particularly her kicks—but what appeared to be a solid wrestling and grappling game on the regional level just hasn’t held up at all against better competition. Most of Fernandes’ UFC career has seen her get pinned to the mat, though she did score some late bursts of offense in what was otherwise a grind against Tereza Bleda. She now faces another striker in Judice, though the UFC newcomer might wind up being a tough matchup herself. Not much was expected of Judice heading into her Dana White’s Contender Series fight in September, as her entire career consisted of three quick knockouts against bottom-tier competition, but she looked like a quick study in a game effort against Ernesta Kareckaite, losing via split decision. It speaks to the UFC’s lower barrier of entry that both women were awarded contracts after the fact, but Judice looks like a prospect who can make some noise down the line as a gritty and aggressive fighter. The question involves whether or not she’s ready to hang at the UFC level right now, which is a coinflip. The bet is that Fernandes’ experience and power can carry her through a fight with some size parity, but this should be a fun battle that can go either way. The pick is Fernandes via decision.

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