Preview: UFC on ESPN 23 ‘Reyes vs. Prochazka’

Middleweights

#15 MW | Sean Strickland (22-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. NR | Krzysztof Jotko (22-4, 9-4 UFC)

ODDS: Strickland (-250), Jotko (+210)

Strickland’s comeback went better than anyone could have expected. Through 2018, “Tarzan” had established himself as a reliably effective welterweight who could not quite get over the hump. Strickland’s counterstriking stylings led him to style on many an overmatched opponent, though the absolute best of his opponents—Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos—could neutralize his best weapons. After a 2018 win over Nordine Taleb, Strickland completely dropped off the radar, owing to a career-threatening motorcycle accident. While Strickland’s life was never in danger, he suffered a massive amount of knee damage that kept him out of action for two years. A middleweight upon his return, Strickland came back and put on two of the best performances of his career, overwhelming Jack Marshman before laying an absolute beating on Brendan Allen for a second-round knockout. This could wind up as the defining run of Strickland’s career, and he looks to continue it against Poland’s Jotko.

Early on in his UFC career, Jotko seemed slotted among the cadre of anonymous middleweights that the UFC had dotting its European cards. The promotion would throw the same few fighters onto the undercards of its events in the region and watch them exchange wins and losses in their various combinations. However, Jotko eventually established himself as the best of the bunch, winning six of his first seven UFC bouts and earning some shine on stateside cards. Jotko has acquitted himself well in nearly every Octagon performance, but he had trouble finding a signature win to earn true contender status. David Branch stalled him out, Uriah Hall pulled off a typical Hall-style comeback and Brad Tavares simply outpaced and outboxed him. It seems clear at this point that Jotko is the type of fighter who needs to have all of his weapons available to him. Specialists who can leave him stranded in one area of his game can quickly turn his versatility into a shallow and one-dimensional approach. The good news for Jotko? He can still turn back a significant portion of the UFC’s middleweight division, and he has rebounded with three straight wins to earn this shot at spoiling Strickland’s run up the ladder.

Jotko is a very good fighter, but it is hard to see how he wins this one. Strickland figures to be both the sharper and more powerful puncher, and he has shown a solid enough wrestling and grappling game that Jotko does not figure to have that as a failsafe. In the past, Jotko could have had more of a path to victory by turning this into a slog, whether via clinch work or by not giving the Californian much to counter, but Strickland has been much more willing to lead and throw volume since his return from the motorcycle accident. One of Jotko’s looping strikes could catch Strickland, but otherwise, this looks to be Strickland continuing to lay volume on the Pole as he runs out of options. The pick is Strickland via third-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » Dvalishvili vs. Stamann