Preview: UFC on ESPN 15 ‘Munhoz vs. Edgar’ Prelims

Welterweights

Carlton Minus (10-1) vs. Matt Semelsberger (6-2)

ODDS: Minus (-135), Semelsberger (+115)

Despite coming off of a notoriously weak Alaskan circuit, Minus is the more proven commodity of these two welterweight hopefuls. He had a one-off stint in the Professional Fighters League—he lost to Rick Story—and has put together some decent wins lately, including a victory over Justin Buchholz. Minus has a clearly defined approach at this point, as he is a range kickboxer and little else. That worked well regionally, but as Minus moves up the ladder, he is either going to need to round out his game or develop some knockout power; to his credit, he has looked athletically sharper from fight to fight. He will take on Maryland’s Semelsberger, who is more formless in his approach at this point. Semelsberger does seem to have some natural power, but he is a one-shot-at-a-time striker who seems to have trouble dictating the terms of his fights. It includes some poor takedown defense that probably will not factor into the outcome. Essentially, there is a prospect in there somewhere when it comes to Semelsberger, but it feels like this UFC shot is coming a year or two too soon. Semelsberger is the much harder hitter, so he could just end this quickly. However, this looks like a fight where Minus can stay at range and Semelsberger will not have much choice but to try and chase him. The pick is Minus via decision.

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