Preview: UFC Fight Night 180 Main Card

Bantamweights

Jonathan Martinez (12-3) vs. Thomas Almeida (21-3)

ODDS: Martinez (-115), Almeida (-105)

It is finally time for Almeida’s long-awaited return. By the end of 2015, “Thominhas” looked like a lock to be a future title contender in the bantamweight division. He famously finished every opponent prior to his UFC arrival, and after a decision win over Tim Gorman in his Octagon debut, Almeida scored three more highlight-reel knockouts, including a flying knee that destroyed Brad Pickett at UFC 189. Almeida kicked off 2016 with his first UFC main event, where he was a clear favorite against fellow prospect Cody Garbrandt. However, Garbrandt quickly knocked out Almeida, exposing the major flaw in the Brazilian’s game. When Almeida gets his striking game going, it is an absolute thing of beauty, as he can chain together combinations with the kind of violence few can match. Given the lack of adversity that Almeida faced moving up the ladder, there was not much concern for what was coming back at him. Almeida’s chin is not terrible, but he is clearly not durable enough to get away with such a defensively open style now that he is facing hard hitters. To his credit, Almeida seems to be addressing the issue, as he is a lot more mindful about staying mobile and picking his opportunities to strike, but that all goes out the window as soon as he starts throwing his offense. A loss to Rob Font in January 2018 was a damaging one, and injuries have kept Almeida out of action ever since. Martinez was a complete unknown when the UFC signed him as an injury replacement in late 2018, so his ensuing success has been a pleasant surprise. There is still plenty for Martinez to fill out in terms of his game, but what is there is a steady core of a sharp striking game. Martinez is not an explosive athlete and he is prone to chasing after his opponents, but he finds a rhythm as the fight goes on and can bring some surprising violence to the table, as two of his three UFC wins have come via knees in the third round. Almeida figures to get off to a hot start, but unless he can become the first man to finish Martinez, the Brazilian is going to deal with more and more danger as the fight goes on. Those knees from Martinez loom large and could lead him to a third such knockout, but Almeida has so many advantages in terms of both hand and foot speed that it is difficult to bet against him. It will be a tense affair until the final horn, but the pick is Almeida via decision.

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