Women’s Bantamweights
Irene Aldana (10-5) vs. Vanessa Melo (9-5)ODDS: Aldana (-470), Melo (+375)
It has been an odd UFC run for Aldana, as she has somehow managed to thread the needle of being both successful and disappointing. Save for a one-sided loss to then-champion Tonya Evinger, Aldana ran through her competition in Invicta, which led to a bunch of steam behind her 2016 UFC debut against Leslie Smith. However, Smith immediately derailed that hype train and set the tone for the rest of Aldana’s campaign. She constantly pressured Aldana, drowned the Mexican prospect in volume and generally left her uncomfortable in her defense. After that came a narrow loss to Katlyn Chookagian, and for a time, it looked like Aldana would go from top prospect to sliding off the UFC roster in short order. Aldana thankfully righted the ship for her next few bouts, getting wins over Talita Bernardo, Lucie Pudilova and Bethe Correia. The Bernardo fight was mostly one-sided, but the latter two bouts followed the same tend, with Aldana struggling against less physically talented fighters who were willing to bite down on their mouthpieces and track her down. That repeated itself against Raquel Pennington in July, this time resulting in a narrow Aldana loss, which has left her six UFC fights as a mixed bag. On one hand, Smith is the only fighter to clearly beat her during that time, but on the other, she has shown some major flaws in her style that give her a clear ceiling. At any rate, after the Pennington loss, Aldana gets a quick turnaround to fight in Mexico, drawing a late replacement in Melo.
Melo has enjoyed a long career and definitely earned this shot, which is pleasant to see. A lot of the UFC’s female newcomers tend to be athletes or submission artists that rack up quick wins against overmatched competition, while Melo has had quite the opposite approach, facing a solid slate of international opponents and outlasting most of them via decision. As a result, the Brazilian is not a flashy fighter, particularly since she seems to be a non-athlete, but her toughness and aggression should serve her well. Rather than being the next Polyana Viana, Melo figures to look more like the next Correia, which is not meant as the insult that some may take it as.
Like Aldana’s last few opponents, Melo figures to be able to take what she throws and continue to march her down, so she is probably in for yet another war. However, in terms of the overall package, Melo is probably Aldana’s weakest opponent since Bernardo, as the Lobo Gym rep figures to have all the physical advantages in terms of power, reach and speed. Again, Melo will keep coming forward, which has historically given Aldana fits, but it would be shocking if Aldana was not just able to beat the newcomer to the punch more times than not. The pick is Aldana via decision.
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