Welterweights
Bryan Barberena (13-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (31-14)
Odds: Barberena (-485), Ellenberger (+385)
When UFC announced its return to Nebraska, Omaha's Jake Ellenberger was a natural addition to the card; he headlined the UFC's last card in the state six years ago and is the most decorated Nebraska native on the current roster. Ellenberger debuted in 2009 with a shockingly narrow loss to Carlos Condit and quickly became a top contender, owing to a combination of strong wrestling and power striking. But since an infamously passive performance in a 2013 loss to Rory MacDonald, Ellenberger's struggled to pull the trigger and has seen his success fade with that ability, losing eight of his last ten fights. Ellenberger's saved his career from the brink a few times thanks to a win over a faded Josh Koscheck and a miracle knockout performance over Matt Brown, but as he's rediscovered his aggression and combined it with some veteran craft, his durability now seems to be abandoning him. Ellenberger was doing fine against Mike Perry in a bout last year before Perry destroyed him in frightening fashion with a clinch elbow, and after a bit of a layoff, Ellenberger returned and got run over in quick fashion by Ben Saunders. This figures to be a bit of a last hurrah for Ellenberger in his home state, so hopefully he can recapture a bit more of his old form against tough grinder Bryan Barberena.
Barberena was a bit underrated early in his UFC career, enough so that matchmakers put him against promotional golden boy Sage Northcutt in a late-notice spot, only to see Barberena tap out Northcutt rather easily with an arm triangle choke. Barberena followed that up with another huge upset over then-top prospect Warlley Alves, and from there everyone was forced to take notice that Barberena, if nothing else, is not an easy out. Losses to Colby Covington and Leon Edwards later on have made it clear that Barberena's more of an elite gatekeeper than a rising prospect, but he's a solid test for how his opponents can deal with his durability and relentlessness, as Barberena is fine taking damage in order to wade in and make things an ugly fight. Barberena might even have a bit of underrated power, too, as he stopped Joe Proctor in brutal fashion in April of last year.
Hopefully Ellenberger has some sort of Hail Mary punch left in him, as he's at the point where his lack of durability makes it difficult to pick him against any form of legit competition. And unlike Matt Brown, who at least has the history of reacting poorly to body blows that Ellenberger was able to exploit, Barberena's ridiculously durable and has never been knocked out. Even if Ellenberger has some success keeping Barberena at bay, I figure at some point Barberena will be able to get inside and do some work in the clinch that I'm not sure Ellenberger will be able to withstand; my pick is Barberena by first-round knockout.
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