Middleweights
NR | Nassourdine Imavov (10-3, 2-1 UFC) vs. #11 | Edmen Shahbazyan (11-2, 4-2 UFC)It has been two years since the UFC’s last event at Madison Square Garden, which was also the last time that Shahbazyan scored a victory, knocking out Brad Tavares in just a shade under two and a half minutes. That continued a stunning rise for “The Golden Boy,” who came to the UFC with the markings of a prospect who was going to struggle. His pre-Dana White’s Contender Series resume was solely quick wins over what barely counted as professional competition, and he was surely helped along by the fact that Ronda Rousey is his manager. However, for the first year of his UFC career, Shahbazyan continued to impress, showing a sharp command of his strikes while racking up quick victories that certainly did not feel like flukes. Then Shahbazyan got his biggest shot to date—an August 2020 bout against Derek Brunson—and things quickly went south. While Shahbazyan never stuck out as someone who was dumping out his gas tank, he obviously struggled as the fight went past the first round, eventually getting pounded out and finished in the third. Rather than take a step back and reassess his approach, Shahbazyan immediately jumped right back into deep waters for a bout against Jack Hermansson. That bout did not get quite as one-sided as the Brunson loss did, but it still painted a clear picture that Shahbazyan struggles and tries to wrestle against opponents who can start providing some resistance. At the very least, Shahbazyan is not facing another ranked opponent this time around, but he gets an underrated tough test in this assignment. Imavov is another fighter who figured to hit a wall upon hitting the UFC. While his sniping approach worked quite well on the regional scene, a weak level of competition did not seem to prepare him much for the quicker and harder hitters on the UFC roster. Nevertheless, Imavov has held up surprisingly well. Jordan Williams represented a soft UFC debut, but Imavov survived the offense of Phil Hawes before scoring an impressive win over Ian Heinisch in July. With Imavov answering so many questions in the affirmative through three UFC fights, he has suddenly become a prospect to watch as he looks to flesh out an inside-outside approach that just needs some more technical depth. With a win here, he will suddenly find himself on the radar of the greater public. This is a fascinating stylistic matchup, since both men typically look to do their work as range strikers but go to their wrestling as a backup; Imavov does so as a mix-up more built in to his game, while Shahbazyan goes to it against opponents who can drag him into deeper waters. Shahbazyan figures to, as he always does, get out to a hot start and take the first round, but given that Imavov seems quite difficult to knock out, it is difficult to tell who does well enough to walk away with the victory. Imavov does appear to be the better wrestler of the two, but Shahbazyan does seem to be slowly becoming a more effective fighter over the long haul and should have the advantage of getting out to that early lead. Still, Shahbazyan is now at the point that he needs to prove he can win a fight like this via decision rather than deserving the benefit of the doubt, so the result leans towards Imavov. In a narrow fight, the pick is Imavov via decision.
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