Preview: UFC 251 ‘Usman vs. Masvidal’ Main Card

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Women’s Strawweights

Rose Namajunas (8-4) vs. Jessica Andrade (20-7)

ODDS: Namajunas (-210), Andrade (+175)

Namajunas once again looks poised to bounce back. The former strawweight champion is rightfully a beloved figure in the sport. She has been open about her rough upbringing and struggles with her own mental health, so even while she is an extremely talented fighter, there is always a sense that she is overcoming the worst parts of herself and overachieving in the process. Namajunas burst onto the scene in Invicta Fighting Championships and on “The Ultimate Fighter” in a manner similar to then-teammate Anthony Pettis. “Thug Rose” could bust out some impressive individual techniques, like her flying armbar win over Kathina Lowe, but Carla Esparza quickly grounded Namajunas and blew open the defensive holes in her game. It is worth remembering at this time just how raw Namajunas was then, but the UFC did not give her much in the way of a step back. Namajunas came off like a natural star on her season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” so the promotion continued to feature her prominently, and even the raw version of Namajunas could not help but beat most of her peers. As a result, in about a year and a half, Namajunas was back in a title eliminator—this time against Karolina Kowalkiewicz—that showed both what she could be and how far she had to go. Kowalkiewicz had little answer for Namajunas from range, but “Thug Rose” kept deciding to use the clinch as a safety valve, and that is where she lost the fight. Kowalkiewicz has always been a surprisingly strong fighter, and Namajunas kept seeking comfort, only to get overpowered on route to a loss. It was a disappointing affair, but again, Namajunas still could not help but succeed going forward and wound up in a title fight against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in late 2017. Namajunas came into that fight as a huge underdog, as she was essentially the last fighter left before Jedrzejczyk truly cleaned out the strawweight division. However, it honestly could not have been scripted any better to become Namajunas’ shining moment. Jedrzejczyk mocked Namajunas’ mental weakness in the leadup to the fight and called herself “the boogeywoman” of the division, which made it all the more poetic when Namajunas literally overcame her demons to score a shocking knockout that ranks among the top upsets in the sport. After a rematch a few months later—a five-round war that should be remembered more as an instant classic—Namajunas left no doubt that she had truly arrived as an elite strawweight and a worthy champion of the division. Then it all came crashing down, quite literally. Namajunas’ first title defense came against Andrade, and it was a career-best performance through about a round and a half. Namajunas looked shockingly crisp as she rifled punches into her challenger’s maw. However, Andrade managed to get in on Namajunas’ hips against the cage. As Namajunas grabbed Andrade’s arm, the challenger sent her up into the air and crashing to the mat for a horrifyingly brutal slam knockout. It was a cruel loss in many ways, so it was unsurprising when Namajunas teased retirement in the months after the fight. Now Namajunas returns a year later for a rematch against Andrade, who is attempting to find her own way back to strawweight gold.

Andrade’s win over Namajunas was basically a microcosm of both fighters. Namajunas’ career has been all about technique and overcoming adversity and evolution, but Andrade is all about brute force. Andrade came into the UFC as a raw bantamweight, but she held her own in terms of strength despite being at a huge size disadvantage. Still, her career at 135 pounds eventually stalled, as she could still overwhelm the worst athletes of the division but had trouble against opponents with some combination of strength and technique. After a 2015 loss to Raquel Pennington, Andrade decided to cut down to strawweight, which seemed like a high-risk, high-reward proposition at the time. Andrade would obviously benefit from some more size parity against smaller competition, but would cutting an extra 20 pounds drain her muscular frame? In retrospect, any concerns seem foolish, as Andrade immediately became an absolute bulldozer at 115 pounds, running over Jessica Penne and Joanne Calderwood before having a three-round war with Angela Hill. That all led to a one-sided loss in a title fight against Jedrzejczyk, which laid Andrade’s game bare. There is just no nuance to the Brazilian’s approach, and Jedrzejczyk managed to use her long frame to keep Andrade at bay and play matador. In response, Andrade just kept charging forward without any hint of a backup plan. Of course, it speaks to just what a physical force Andrade is that despite such a raw game she immediately set about another impressive run that, as it turns out, led to her winning the strawweight title. She became the first fighter to outright overpower Claudia Gadelha and knocked out the extremely durable Kowalkiewicz before wresting the belt away from Namajunas. Inside the cage, Andrade’s reign lasted all of 42 seconds, as Weili Zhang met her head-on and knocked her out, so this rematch against Namajunas is crucial. Andrade may not be able to adjust her game going forward, and this fight will prove whether or not she needs to.

The dynamic of this fight does not look to have changed much since the first one. Namajunas has not fought since losing her belt, and Andrade looks set to bring the same approach as always. While it may seem reductive to say that Namajunas will win this as long as she does not get dropped on her head again, that basically sums up the situation based on how the first fight went. There are some things that will always make Andrade a tougher matchup for Namajunas than she should be on paper. While “Thug Rose” has a long frame, she is more comfortable pressuring her opponents than moving from the outside, and her willingness to clinch put her in danger in their first fight and figures to do so here. However, outside of the fight-ending slam, Namajunas showed an ability to neutralize Andrade in those grinding exchanges; and outside of those stalemates, Namajunas was putting on a master class in terms of a striking match, making Andrade look one-dimensional in a manner similar to what Jedrzejczyk did, only causing more damage in the process. In the 14 months since their last bout, Namajunas and her camp are the much likelier side to adjust based off what went right and what went wrong and fight a smart fight going forward. As the first fight showed, Andrade can change everything in one moment, but unless that happens, this should be all one-way traffic. The pick is for Namajunas to keep building over the course of the fight and score a third-round stoppage.

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