Bantamweights
#1 BW | Marlon Moraes (22-6-1) vs. #3 FW | Jose Aldo (28-5)ODDS: Moraes (-200), Aldo (+170)
What was turning into a fun post-championship career for Aldo has suddenly taken a concerning turn. Aldo reigned over the featherweight division for years, slowly morphing from an offensive dynamo into one of the great neutralizers in MMA history, using a combination of powerful strikes and excellent takedown defense to disincentivize everything his opponents had to offer. Then he spent 13 seconds in the cage with Conor McGregor. Given all of the build, McGregor handed Aldo one of the most singularly nightmarish losses in UFC history, and even when the Irishman moved up in weight, Aldo’s second reign as featherweight king was essentially over before it began thanks to two one-sided losses to Max Holloway. Suddenly back in three-round bouts, Aldo spent his next few fights recapturing some of his old violence in quite a victory lap. Jeremy Stephens and Renato Carneiro decided to go toe-to-toe with the former champ, and Aldo turned them both back in brutal fashion. A May loss to Alexander Volkanovski probably shut the door permanently on any featherweight title hopes for Aldo, but there was still a ton of fun opponents left for Aldo to fight in a deep division. Instead, Aldo—who already had to endure a harsh weight cut at 145 pounds—shockingly decided to cut down to 135 pounds, which was a baffling move from more or less every angle, especially since recent photos of Aldo on social media have looked quite dire, to say the least. Sirens of warning are blaring, not least of which that Aldo is getting thrown right into the deep end against bantamweight’s most recent title challenger in Moraes.
Moraes was one of the success stories from the World Series of Fighting. An unheralded prospect at first, “Magic Marlon” quickly made his name as a ball of violence, taking out challenger after challenger and getting paid well for the honor. However, as things started to turn south for his home promotion, Moraes eventually jumped to the UFC and was thrown immediately into the top tier of the division against perennial elite spoiler Raphael Assuncao. It went about as poorly as possible for Moraes. Assuncao’s strong countering style neutralized most of his offense, and an ugly split decision was eventually handed to Assuncao. Moraes rebounded and did so in impressive fashion. His next win over John Dodson was a nip-tuck affair, but Moraes ran through Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera and Assuncao in less than five minutes combined to affirm his standing as top bantamweight contender. Moraes eventually faced Henry Cejudo for the title vacated by T.J. Dillashaw in June, and Cejudo coming out on the winning end says more about his strengths than any flaws on Moraes’ part. The current two-division champion decided to bite down on his mouthpiece and charge through Moraes’ offense in a manner that few can afford. Moraes looks to rebound here in an excellent opportunity to add a big-name win to his resume.
Aldo’s cut to 135 pounds is completely ill-advised, but Moraes might be a forgiving matchup as far as elite bantamweights are concerned. Essentially, Moraes has a similar approach to Aldo, focusing on specific bursts of offense to conserve his energy and discourage his opponent’s techniques. If Moraes is not going to wear out Aldo via pace, there is a certain strain of logic that says Aldo can hit the harder shots and slowly gain momentum. Of course, the flaw in this plan is that you cannot hit what you cannot catch, and Moraes figures to be the much quicker fighter. This does not even mention the concern about exactly what toll this cut to bantamweight is going to take on Aldo’s physical strength and durability. Even if every bad sign on social media about this cut is overstated, the whole thing just does not look promising. Out of deference to Aldo’s historical durability, the pick is Moraes via decision. With that said, Moraes should be able to pick apart the former featherweight champion without much difficulty, so there is a solid chance of a finish.
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