Heavyweights
#8 HW | Blagoy Ivanov (18-2) vs. #5 HW | Derrick Lewis (21-7)ODDS: Ivanov (-125), Lewis (+105)
The situation has certainly cooled off for Lewis lately, as “The Black Beast” has yet to get a win since his infamous victory at UFC 229 late in 2018. That card saw Lewis paired with Alexander Volkov. After the Russian boxed up Lewis for the better part of 14 minutes, the Texans turned things around, scored a knockout and then took off his pants, since, as he put it, his “balls was hot.” That quote alone made Lewis a huge part of the MMA zeitgeist, and to its credit, the UFC capitalized on the moment, giving him a title shot a month later in Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately for Lewis, he was figuratively depantsed, as Daniel Cormier’s wrestling game managed to handle him without much trouble. Since then, it has been a lost year. Lewis’ style has always been something that can only work at heavyweight, and oftentimes just barely, as he coasts throughout the fight and takes a bunch of damage before somehow outlasting his counterpart and scoring a sudden knockout. Junior dos Santos -- Lewis’ only opponent since the Cormier fight -- figured to be a particularly troubling matchup as one of the few heavyweights who can actually box, and indeed, the Brazilian got Lewis out of a main event bout in a little under a round and a half. The good news for Lewis is that he is in a wide-open division, and his fan-favorite status will always give him a bit of an edge in terms of opportunities. For now, he needs to just get back on the winning track.
Standing in Lewis’ path is Ivanov, who has been a pleasant surprise since he made his way to the UFC. Ivanov’s story has been well-documented, but it is still insane enough to recount: A former combat sambo standout, Ivanov was attacked in a bar in his native Bulgaria, was stabbed in the heart and, after a stint in a coma, eventually recovered to full health and regained his status as an MMA prospect. Since then, “Baga” has put together a solid resume through stints in Bellator MMA and the World Series of Fighting, even if his one-punch-at-a-time approach is not particularly inspiring. In a division like heavyweight, Ivanov’s combination of patience, durability and grappling has been enough to get by most opponents. As far as his UFC stint goes, Ivanov was immediately thrown into the deep end, losing a main event bout to dos Santos before recovering with victories over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa. Admittedly, those wins have not aged particularly well in the ensuing months, but again, Ivanov’s steady hand stands out in a division full of flawed fighters and might just be enough to get things done here.
Lewis fights typically defy analysis, so as always, this is a fight that can go either way. Ivanov does seem to fight intelligently enough that he can avoid falling into the trap of wrestling Lewis. As a few prior fights have shown, trying to avoid Lewis’ power by taking things to the mat often just winds up exhausting his opponents and leaving them open for a late knockout. It should be a lot of range striking for Ivanov, whose ability and willingness to work the body should pay dividends along the course of the fight as Lewis reacts notoriously poorly to taking damage to the body. Lewis obviously has a chance, as he has a massive size advantage, and his ability to cover ground quickly in moments could easily catch Ivanov off-guard at any point during the fight. However, if Lewis does not work at enough of a pace to tire out Ivanov and leave him vulnerable, this is the Bulgarian’s fight to lose. The pick is Ivanov via third-round stoppage, though half the fun of a Lewis fight is watching him pull out a victory when he is expected to lose.
Continue Reading » Gillespie vs. Lee