Middleweights
Tim Kennedy (18-5) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2)
Power is Kennedy’s defining characteristic. He is a smothering chain wrestler capable of dragging all but the very best wrestlers to the ground and keeping them there; and though undeveloped technique has for many years prevented Kennedy from finding knockouts, he does seem to have natural power in his hands. Under Brandon Gibson, Kennedy was showing some marked improvements, but again, two years is a long time for an older fighter to sit on the sidelines.
Gastelum is pretty powerful himself, although one assumes his frequent -- and frequently unsuccessful -- attempts to make the welterweight limit were inspired by the desire for more overwhelming strength. A few catchweights aside, Gastelum has not fought officially as a middleweight since winning “The Ultimate Fighter” in April 2013. However, he has been more active in general than Kennedy, fighting three times in 2015 and once in 2016 so far. Of equal importance is the fact that Gastelum is just 25 years old. Though his weight issues, coupled with a few uninspiring losses, have muted the excitement somewhat, Gastelum is still a young and promising fighter. Lots of prospects lose; what matters is how they respond. If Gastelum’s last victory is any indication, he is not yet satisfied.
Gastelum will be the smaller man in the cage. Kennedy is two inches taller with three extra inches of reach, and his muscle-bound frame would not look out of place at light heavyweight, where he has actually competed twice in the past. If he has continued to develop his footwork and kicking game under Gibson during this long layoff, then he could have the right combination of skills and strength to give Gastelum serious trouble. Stylistically, however, Gastelum will be tough to overcome. He throws a greater number and variety of strikes and is more comfortable pressing the action and hanging out in the pocket. Past opponents have controlled him on the ground, but Gastelum is typically a solid scrambler with adequate takedown defense.
THE ODDS: Kennedy (-156), Gastelum (+131)
THE PICK: This is a tough fight to call. There are too many question marks swirling around the Kennedy silhouette to predict his performance with any degree of certainty; and there are just enough question marks on Gastelum’s shoulders that I do not feel safe counting on his volume and technique. If Kennedy is sharp, he could lean on his size and strength and end up controlling Gastelum the way Neil Magny did. If Kennedy is anything less, however, Gastelum should have the right tools to pressure him and throw him out of whack entirely -- maybe. The pick is Gastelum by unanimous decision.
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