UFC 178 ‘Johnson vs. Cariaso’ Preview

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Conor McGregor (15-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. Dustin Poirier (16-3, 8-2 UFC)

THE PICK: Yet another compelling matchup of rising stars graces the middle of the card, as verbose Irishman McGregor takes on talented featherweight mainstay Poirier. With both fighters entering the bout on three-fight winning streaks, a shot at top competition in the form of a top contender matchup or even a title shot hangs in the balance.

Poirier has made impressive strides in his game since moving to American Top Team two years ago, developing into one of the division’s better power strikers. Poirier throws bombs in the pocket, counters well and finishes his smooth, forward-moving combinations with hard kicks to the body and legs from his southpaw stance. He remains hittable, though, rarely moving his head or stepping into an angle on his kicks, both of which leave him vulnerable to counters. Poirier is a solid wrestler with serviceable takedown defense, but he has the unfortunate habit of shooting from too far outside. In his last several outings, Poirier has shown some trips and throws from the clinch, which meld well with his hard knees and strong control from the position. Poirier shines on the mat, especially in scrambles. His arsenal of chokes from the front headlock is one of the best in MMA, and he can inflict serious damage from top position. Poirier is defensively flawed, but his finishing skills and ability to set a brutal pace make him a threat in every phase.

Given the disproportionate emphasis on McGregor’s mouth, his legitimate and high-level skills have been somewhat forgotten. Despite his unorthodox tendencies, the Irishman is an exceptional athlete with outstanding fundamentals in all phases. His command of angles and range at striking distance is unparalleled; he sets up his power shots in beautiful sequences; and he uses his constant stream of meat-and-potatoes shots -- jab, straight left, side kick to the leg, etc. -- to set up the bolo punches, high kicks and spinning strikes that define his game. The opposite phenomenon is just as impressive: Opponents are so worried about the unorthodox strikes that they forget the clean, powerful basics. The different pieces of McGregor’s striking game come together in a compelling package worth much more than the sum of its parts. It also helps that McGregor is a perfectly serviceable wrestler and better-than-average grappler with particular gifts in transitions and powerful striking from the top. To top it all off, McGregor is difficult to hit squarely and boasts perhaps the most punishing work rate in all of MMA.

BETTING ODDS: McGregor (-260), Poirier (+220)

THE PICK: Two predictions. First, strap yourselves in, because this is going to be awesome. Second, this is McGregor’s fight to lose, particularly if Poirier allows himself to be drawn into the kind of quick-paced striking contests he has favored in the past. Although Poirier probably has the edge in sheer power, the Irishman throws more varied shots while retaining a substantial edge in the subtleties of the striking game. Poirier should try to wrestle; failing takedowns, he should attempt to force scrambles that allow him work his dangerous chokes. However, the general soundness of McGregor’s grappling and defensive wrestling indicates the Irishman will be fine in those exchanges. I think Poirier will be happy to oblige McGregor in a striking match, though, and if so, the Irishman wins by knockout late in the second.

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