Heavyweights
Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC) vs. Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC)
Chris Leben beat Aaron Simpson and Yoshihiro Akiyama over the course of a two-week span in 2010, raising his profile from popular journeyman to main card attraction. Johnson’s talents were on full display at UFC on Fox 3, where he knocked out Pat Barry in front of a national television audience; his flair for finishing makes him an easy sell to bloodthirsty fight fans.
Meanwhile, Struve has quietly fashioned a solid UFC career at just 24 years old. While not quite a top-tier heavyweight, the 6-foot-11 Dutchman has a penchant for come-from-behind magic and entertaining fights. He struggled in the first round against Dave Herman at UFC on Fuel TV 1, allowing his opponent to move inside his considerable reach and land several combinations. Struve rallied in the second frame, however, buckling Herman with an uppercut before finishing the contest with punches from mount.
Struve blamed jet lag for his slow start in that bout, but he will have to come out much more quickly against Johnson; a lackluster opening round from “Skyscraper” here will result in him looking up at the roof at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Johnson possesses a powerful right hand and a deadly uppercut, both of which can end a fight in a hurry. The Team Schrijber representative’s three career losses have all come by way of brutal knockout, and Johnson will no doubt be headhunting with that fact in mind.
The 34-year-old would like to back up Struve against the cage, where he can unload a series of rapid-fire bombs, as he did in punishing Barry with left hooks and right uppercuts before their May 5 bout was halted. Of course, it is no secret that Johnson’s Achilles’ heel is grappling, as four of his five career losses have come via tapout. Even Barry, who is not known for his proficiency on the mat, had “Big” in trouble with a keylock early on in their heavyweight clash. That bodes well for Struve, who has averaged more than four submission attempts per 15 minutes during his UFC tenure. He moves well on the mat, transitioning from one dominant position to another while using his long limbs to maintain control of his opponent.
The Pick: Struve is still getting bigger and stronger and has yet to fully grasp how to use his considerable reach to full capacity. How much he has progressed in these areas will determine how he fares against Johnson, who figures to take it to him early. If Struve survives Johnson’s early onslaught, he can wear him down, get the fight to the floor and work for a submission. Look for Struve to get rocked early, but he will maintain his composure long enough to expose Johnson’s flaws on the ground and force his foe to tap out late in round one.
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