UFC 125 Preview: The Main Card

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Light Heavyweights
Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera

The Matchup: Vera has a tendency to fight to his level of competition. If his opponent does not push him or present a palpable threat in certain areas, he often will not press his advantages. Contrasted against the explosive performances Vera put on as a heavyweight, it leads many to wonder if his mental game will ever match his considerable physical gifts.

That is why this one is fun, as Silva is pretty much assured to bring violence at Vera from the jump. Silva, who cut too much weight, was uncharacteristically disinterested in his dreadful performance against Rashad Evans a year ago. Like Vera, he needs a significant win to continue his campaign in a stacked 205-pound division. While point-jockeying seems to be the trend in MMA these days, Silva is there to take off his opponent’s head, which is precisely why he is going to stick around in the UFC, even if he tends to fall short against the better competition.

Vera’s wrestling, takedown defense and jiu-jitsu are a better combination than Silva’s, who will have to present a credible threat on the feet to win this match. He is not going to win it taking down Vera and sitting on him for three rounds. Silva’s best chance is to mix up strikes and force exchanges, as opposed to sitting back and playing a game of counters with Vera, whose leg kicks and sharpness, when he is in the groove, can pick apart an opponent.

Look for Silva to press the action early, with Vera forced into a bout that devolves into a firefight at times. It is critical that Vera respond here, as Silva seems to thrive on a bullying style but gets flustered when opponents can stand their ground and dictate to him.

The Pick: Vera will rally late, mixing in a couple takedowns and some gritty brawling en route to a third-round knockout.

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