Tim Boetsch (left) file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
This fight was supposed to serve as Thiago Silva’s return to the Octagon, but an injury forced him to withdraw and in his stead is UFC newcomer Brown. The change likely doesn’t mean much to Boetsch, who made his name with a reckless five-minutes-of-hell style during his initial UFC run.
While Boetsch invariably failed against next-level competition, he could always put together an insta-classic beatdown on borderline light heavyweights. Brown falls into that category, based on the less than inspiring YouTube clips of him competing in glorified matches of Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robots. Being able to throw with power and even the thinnest sliver of technique will get the job done against hapless jobbers, but the UFC is no place for glorified Toughman contestants.
No one is ever going to jock Boetsch for a title run, but he’s a nasty stand-up striker with a surprising diversity of techniques. The front push kick to the body will likely be his most effective weapon against Brown, who tends to throw his entire upper body into punches. In other words, Brown leads with his chin and leaves his torso exposed every time he throws a punch. Simple fundamental flaws like that won’t go unnoticed or unpunished in the Octagon.
In all likelihood, Brown will try and crowd Boetsch, which means he’ll be getting into the kind of close quarters brawl that the rugged Maine native thrives on. His fights with David Heath and Mike Patt show what “The Barbarian” can do when opponents stay in the pocket with him. In both of those bouts he notched first-round stoppages on the strength of accurate power punches and his surprisingly adroit Thai clinch.
The only way Brown can realistically win this fight is by outlasting Boetsch, who simply doesn’t have the conditioning to sustain his pace for more than a round or so. However, even if Brown can find the restraint to resist a slugfest, he still doesn’t have any high-level offense to offer. When Jason Brilz rallied back to beat Boetsch, he still had to fight for takedowns while avoiding potential kill-shots.
Such strategic cunning is beyond Brown’s reach. It will show when he tries to win this fight on Boetsch’s terms. Consider a first-round TKO win for Boetsch the night’s safest bet and, even better, another caber toss to round out the highlight reel is a definite possibility.