Preview: UFC 268 Prelims

Middleweights

NR | Phil Hawes (11-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. NR | Chris Curtis (26-8, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Hawes (-310), Curtis (+255)

This is an important fight for both men. Hawes might finally be turning the corner, even if it has taken longer than most would have expected. A former collegiate wrestling standout, “Megatron” was one of the top prospects in the sport almost immediately upon his professional debut in 2014, thanks to his elite power and athleticism. When it was announced that he would be part of “The Ultimate Fighter” in early 2016, Hawes was one of the clear favorites to claim the season’s crown. Instead, Hawes did not even make it into the house, losing to eventual season winner Andrew Sanchez in the preliminary round and foreshadowing the frustration that would mark the next few years. Hawes went to the World Series of Fighting, where he rebounded with a quick win before losing to Louis Taylor in his sophomore appearance with the company. Even coming off that loss, Hawes was well-regarded enough that he still got an invite for Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. That fight followed what became a familiar script for Hawes, as he got out to a hot start before losing control of the bout, eventually suffering a head kick knockout to Julian Marquez in the second round. From there, Hawes did not prove much new in putting together another string of quick knockouts, but that run wound up being enough to finally get him into the UFC, earning a contract via a return to DWCS and then debuting with an 18-second win over Jacob Malkoun. That paved the way for a 2021 campaign that has seen Hawes put together the best two performances of his career. First came a bout against Nassourdine Imavov in which Hawes flagged after his typical hot start but managed to finally survive adversity, fighting through exhaustion to hang on for a decision win. Then came Kyle Daukaus in what figured to be a particularly tough matchup against a durable and high-paced fighter. Somewhat amazingly, Hawes managed to keep up with Daukaus for 15 minutes and never really flag. If Hawes has finally channeled his potential and worked out his issues, he has championship-level upside. He gets another tough test against a UFC newcomer. Curtis’ UFC debut has been over three years in the making. “The Action Man” scored a highlight-reel knockout on the 2018 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series that seemed to guarantee him a UFC contract, but instead, it saw him get passed up in one of the more baffling decisions in the history of the show. It has been a journey from there, with multiple teased retirements, a COVID-19 case scuttling his Bellator MMA debut and up-and-down stretches when it came to actual results. Still, Curtis has proven himself as an effective fighter, owing to a patient and accurate striking game that has allowed him to simply survive and wait for his opportunity. Hawes figures to get off to a strong start early, especially given that opponents have been able to control Curtis in the past. However, after the first frame, things get interesting. Hawes may simply be past his issues enough to rely on his strength to grind out three rounds of an ugly victory, but Curtis is a sharp enough striker that he should be able to make the favorite pick and choose his opportunities, all while causing some damage in the process. An early Hawes finish is unlikely given Curtis’ durability and veteran savvy, and the newcomer has enough cardio and sting to his punches that he should be able to make up the difference on the scorecards in the back half of the fight. In a bit of a flier, the pick is Curtis via decision.

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