Ht/Wt: 5’10/170 lbs.
Age: 30
Hometown: Waynesburg, Pa.
Fighting out of: Fresno, Calf.
Record: 11-2
The stakes: A late replacement for the injured Diego Sanchez, Koscheck was obviously serious about his desire to fight more often as this is his third bout in eight months. Of course, the drawbacks of stepping in on late notice were easily outweighed by the allure of becoming the top contender in the dog-eat-dog welterweight division.
It’s no secret that the winner of this bout will likely face the winner of the upcoming welterweight title scrap between B.J. Penn and incumbent champion Georges St. Pierre. Having already lost a title eliminator match once before, to St. Pierre at UFC 74, Koscheck has a chance to make up for past failures while setting up his future in one fell swoop.
The breakdown: Known as much for his Gorgeous George style antics as his jaw-dropping physical ability, Koscheck needs to go back to his roots and use the cannonball shot that has shut down so many past opponents to avoid Alves’ razor-sharp striking.
The possibility of Alves deporting him from the land of the conscious is something Koscheck must be thoroughly aware of -- he has gotten himself into trouble before by testing his still-developing striking against dangerous opponents. Playing it safe, corralling Alves’ busy guard and staying active enough to stave off any restarts will be key for Koscheck. He simply can’t risk letting Alves get to the feet, where the Brazilian buzzsaw can change the entire complexion of this bout with a single blow.
Alves Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’9/170 lbs.
Age: 25
Hometown: Fortaleza, Brazil
Fighting out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
Record: 15-3
The stakes: Just like Koscheck, Alves is looking to solidify a claim to the welterweight title and a win here does just that. Already in the midst of an impressive six-fight UFC win streak, Alves knows full well that a loss here would make all that work for naught and send him tumbling down the ranks with no guarantee that he’ll ever be in position to make another run like the one he’s on now.
The welterweight division is unforgiving when it comes to losses, and having already done so much to put himself in this position, a loss for Alves would be the kind of personal tragedy you’d expect to find on the Lifetime channel.
The breakdown: Alves, more so than almost any striker who lacks a quicksilver sprawl, understands the value of an active guard in getting back to the feet. Not the type to stall for restarts, his resolve to use his opponent’s head for target practice only seems to grow when he finds himself on the mat.
That is certainly a good mentality to have against Koscheck, who will look for the takedown early and often. What’s important for Alves is to avoid damage on the ground and disrupt Koscheck’s base so he can get back to the feet. It’s no secret that Alves isn’t the type to waste time flicking jabs, and he’ll need to make sure he gets the most he can out of every second this bout is on the feet.
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The bottom line: While Koscheck has shown he can shut down his opponent’s offense on several occasions, we’ve also seen Koscheck make blunders that have left him vulnerable and nearly cost him fights. Against Alves, that room for error simply does not exist as Alves epitomizes the modern MMA knockout artist.
Watch for Koscheck to control the bout early but struggle to mount much offense while Alves simply waits for an opening to unload. That opportunity will come, and when it does, you’ll see Alves leave Koscheck’s curly golden locks tinged with red.