UFC 101 Preview: The Main Card

UFC Lightweight Championship

B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (11-3)

The Breakdown: Now that the MMA blogosphere has gotten over the manufactured controversy of “Greasegate,” Penn will finally return to the business of defending the lightweight title against the number one contender. Florian will try for a second time to capture the title that eluded him against Sean Sherk at UFC 64. An infinitely improved version of the fighter that Sherk overwhelmed awaits Penn, as Florian’s physical and technical ability have finally caught up to his will to win. More important, however, will be how Florian game plans for Penn’s freakish versatility and elite jiu-jitsu skills.

Thus far, Florian has found success by picking at opponents on the feet and eventually overwhelming them on the mat with both submissions and strikes. That will prove problematic against Penn, who has proven near impossible to take down and lethal from virtually any position on the mat. While seeking out a kickboxing match may seem like a viable strategy for Florian, both Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk tried that approach and paid for it with equal parts pain and plasma. Considering Penn’s reliance on pure talent to guide him through matches, Florian will have to lean on his tactical mind to stay one step ahead of him. Going right after Penn and hoping for the best may be his only other option. In that case, the best for which Florian could hope would be to head home with his limbs intact.

The X Factor: The only proven way to beat Penn is to frustrate him with a sound game plan and hope for his will or cardio to buckle. After watching Penn’s current lightweight run, it has become clear that he has resolved his past conditioning issues. What remains is an undeniably talented fighter with a mercurial personality who seems convinced he can coast to victory against virtually anyone. If nothing else, Florian will make Penn work for the win; that’s the first step to beating him.

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The Bottom Line: Florian is undoubtedly the top contender to Penn’s crown, but the more I think about it, the more I believe he has no real chance against Penn. There is not a grappler in the division who can beat Penn on the mat, and Penn’s striking has been a revelation of late. This will not be as terribly one-sided as Penn’s previous lightweight scraps, thanks to Florian’s cerebral style, but that will only prolong a foregone conclusion. Penn delivers another vintage performance by putting Florian away with his trademark rear-naked choke late in the third round.