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Scott Lighty has K-1 experience. | D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

The Matchup: Lighty has solid standup and decent power and wants to keep it standing in most bouts. However, given Larkin’s record and dangerous standup, Lighty might be better off taking it to the ground, or at least feigning the threat of doing so.

Larkin has quick hands and tends to finish opponents early; that lack of deep-fight experience is a wild card in this matchup. Larkin was a late substitution for judo specialist Satoshi Ishii, so the jury is out on how good his conditioning will be.

The Pick: Despite the factors working against Larkin, he has a legitimate shot in this fight due to the style matchup. In fact, he may be a sleeper for an upset here; it depends on what Lighty wants to do and how he wants to attack. If he mixes up his attack, he wins via late stoppage. If he slugs, he gives Larkin a great shot, as the undefeated prospect can win via knockout in such a scenario.

Next Fight: Caros Fodor vs. David Douglas