OK, now onto the “Demolition Man” who enters the arena with a big hammer on his shoulder. But you know I guess he really hasn’t used that hammer recently. The guillotine: that’s his new tool.
So how it really will go? What is Overeem’s weapon? Obviously the guillotine choke that he used in his past two fights. (He also used it to win his ADCC trial in Europe.) But, I don’t think this guillotine will catch my boy’s neck.
Why won’t it work?
I can see Overeem jumping to catch Shogun’s head. But Shogun has enough awareness from what he saw in Alistair’s last two fights, so I think he can keep the guillotine down on the ground and not get his head chopped off his neck.
Will Shogun easily beat Overeem? I won’t say “easy” because the guillotine is not the only weapon Alistair has. He’s got a hammer. He can kick. He can punch. You didn’t forget his jumping knee did you? His legs are very long. And his knees can hit Shogun’s face easy. So, basically Shogun has to be careful of both Overeem’s striking and submissions.
Now you think, “C’mon, Shogun can exchange the heavy punches, face to face, by planting his foot on the canvas. If one punch connects from there, he can put Alistair down.”
Yes, he can. Sure he can. But wait: Is this situation a bad stance for the fighter who’s good at knees? I think it is a very bad idea if Shogun stands up face-to-face and exchanges.
Now you say, “Shogun can also knee well, too.” But Shogun’s knees are thrown from a closer range. So when Shogun throws knees, he has to be careful that Overeem might jump to catch his head.
So now what? Am I changing my pick? I thought about it and I almost did. But I’m sticking with Shogun because I still have bit of doubt about Overeem’s takedown defense. His back (hip) is too light. In other words, we Japanese say his “hip is weak.”
I can see Shogun taking down Overeem before he catches Shogun’s neck. And I can see Shogun demolishing the “Demolition Man” until he gets thin like a tortilla, either from inside the guard or side mount. Doesn’t matter.
Don’t get me wrong: Alistair is very, very skilled and tough. He trained with Fedor in Holland for this fight. He’ll stand back up even if he gets smacked on the ground. And he’ll still throw hands. But, after he gets damaged, he’ll just take all the punishment on the ground and on the feet. Then I can see this fight over at the very end of the first round. Shogun will win by TKO — that is if Alistair’s beautiful girlfriend sitting ringside does not catch Shogun’s eyes.