Sherdog Prospect Watch: 10 Upside Picks

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is signing fighters left, right and center these days, and most of them will never come close to competing for a title. This installment of the Sherdog Prospect Watch series focuses on 10 fighters who do have that kind of potential.

While scouting prospects is not exactly a science in any sport -- hello, Darko Milicic and JaMarcus Russell -- neither is it a total crapshoot. In mixed martial arts, the most important factors when looking at future success are fairly straightforward:

• Almost all future champions and contenders started fighting before the age of 26. There are exceptions, but they are either freakish athletes or possess a world-class skill set -- Olympic wrestling, for example -- and have spent their entire careers at a high-level camp.

• Athleticism and physical tools matter. Skills can improve dramatically given time and training, but physicality can only be honed so much. Nobody who has won a UFC title in the last few years has been anything less than a plus athlete, and most of them have been true phenoms.

• A fighter’s training environment is hugely important. Prospects hailing from big-time camps -- Jackson-Wink MMA, Tristar Gym, Team Alpha Male, American Kickboxing Academy, American Top Team, Blackzilians, Nova Uniao, etc. -- are more than three times as likely to succeed at a high level as their compatriots from smaller gyms. This has to do with the quality of coaching and training partners, first and foremost, but it is also a product of the boost to visibility and profile that being around elite fighters and coaches provides.

None of this means fighters from small camps, or those who lack elite athleticism or start fighting later in life, cannot be successful. It simply means the odds are stacked against them from the very beginning.

I excluded fighters who have already debuted in the UFC or Bellator MMA, along with World Series of Fighting’s champions, but everyone else was fair game. This is not a comprehensive list by any stretch of the imagination, and there are many other young fighters who are on their way up and have a good chance of becoming top-flight competitors. These 10 fighters, however, have as viable a shot, if not more so, than their compatriots. Keep an eye on them in the future.

Continue Reading » Julio Arce