Preview: UFC 278 ‘Usman vs. Edwards 2’

One week before a rare break, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Salt Lake City for a pay-per-view carried heavily by its top three bouts. In the main event, Leon Edwards finally gets his long-awaited chance at the welterweight title when he takes on Kamaru Usman in a rematch of their 2015 encounter. It may not be an electric pairing, but it is an opportunity to see an all-time great in action against a worthy challenger. Elsewhere, there is the co-headliner between Paulo Costa and former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold—two inconsistent fighters with plenty of questions surrounding their respective careers. Rounding out the top of the bill, Jose Aldo looks to continue his surge back to the bantamweight title picture against Merab Dvalishvili in an excellent test for both men. Finally, top heavyweight prospect Alexander Romanov gets an opportunity to move the needle some against Marcin Tybura, though the wisdom of having this match take place at elevation seems questionable at best. All in all, it may not be quite as stacked as some of the UFC’s recent numbered shows, but it should cap the promotion’s August schedule with some entertainment value.

Now to the UFC 278 “Usman vs. Edwards 2” preview:

UFC Welterweight Championship

#1 P4P | Kamaru Usman (20-1, 15-0 UFC) vs. #2 WW | Leon Edwards (19-3, 11-2 UFC)

ODDS: Usman (-340), Edwards (+280)

The next generation of welterweight contenders looks to be on the horizon, but for now, Usman is somehow back in yet another rematch. Firmly in the mix as top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Usman continues to build on a spotless UFC resume. Coming off “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2015, “The Nigerian Nightmare” was immediately a top prospect to watch at 170 pounds, if only for the powerful wrestling game that seemingly allowed him to control any fight, including wins over Edwards and Sean Strickland that helped separate him from other rising welterweight talents. That gave Usman some leeway as he continued to hone his craft as a striker. While that is still obviously where Usman is at his least comfortable, a brutal 2017 knockout of Sergio Moraes served as a clear statement that the future champion was now a threat anywhere his fights take place. Usman eventually won the title in 2019 from Tyron Woodley—a bout that was shockingly easy work once he affirmed his wrestling advantage. His first title defense against Colby Covington showed that Usman could hang in the complete opposite style of fight. The two wrestlers combined for a thrillingly high-paced striking match, with Usman coming out the victor via knockout in the last minute of the match. Next was a grinding win over Jorge Masvidal, and after surviving some early trouble against former teammate Gilbert Burns and scoring another knockout, Usman got a rare chance to essentially play the hits, subsequently dispatching Masvidal and Covington in rematches. The second Masvidal win was a scintillating performance, reaffirming Usman’s advancement as a striker with an absolutely brutal second-round knockout. However, the Covington rematch did raise some concerns that the champion is becoming technical to a fault. For two rounds, Covington adopted a more technical approach of his own that essentially got him nowhere, at which point he reverted to his overaggressive style that gave Usman some obvious issues this time around. While Usman is an immensely improved striker from where he started his UFC career, he is still not nearly the natural he is as a wrestler. Now as committed as ever to his technique and his process, Covington did exploit that this latest version of Usman can take some time to adjust if his opponent decides to bring a high pace. That is also essentially nitpicking, at least at this point. Usman still did walk away with a clear victory, and in general, any adversity in his career has seen him look simply great rather than amazingly exceptional. It is also unclear if any of those issues will be raised in this rematch against Edwards.

A highly touted finisher while rising through the ranks in his native England, Edwards was still in a clear phase of transition when he fought Usman seven years ago. Edwards’ debut in the UFC was a disappointment, as Claudio Silva scored a narrow decision win behind an aggressive wrestling game, but “Rocky” quickly regained his hype in his next fight with an eight-second knockout of Seth Baczynski. From there, Edwards started honing a clinch- and wrestling-heavy approach of his own that, while an obviously poor idea against a powerhouse of a wrestler such as Usman, has resulted in a 10-fight undefeated streak for the Brit ever since. Mostly buried on cards in Europe for the first part of his undefeated run, Edwards made a name for himself as one of the UFC’s most underrated fighters with wins over tough outs such as Vicente Luque and Bryan Barberena. However, his first UFC main event—a 2018 win over Donald Cerrone—was not the huge breakout performance for which some might have hoped. Beyond being a low-profile card, most of the talk afterwards centered around Cerrone fighting through illness to put on a game performance in a loss. Edwards still seemed to gain some momentum with subsequent wins over Gunnar Nelson and Rafael dos Anjos in some more high-profile positions, but his career has seemed somewhat cursed in its own way ever since. Edwards was slated to headline a show opposite Woodley in London—in retrospect, it was a huge opportunity for Edwards to take advantage of the former champion’s late-career slide before it was quite so apparent—only to have that event serve as the first casualty of the coronavirus pandemic. With Edwards stuck in England, the division essentially moved on without him as he waited out the global crisis. A pairing against Khamzat Chimaev fizzled out due to injury issues on both sides, and Edwards’ eventual return was another bit of bad luck. Matched with Belal Muhammad in a UFC Fight Night main event, neither man gained much of anything after an Edwards eye poke ended the fight in a no contest. Still, Edwards managed to seemingly fall into the breakout opportunity he had needed for years. For whatever reason, Nate Diaz agreed to face Edwards in a five-round fight at UFC 263 in 2021, giving the former British Association of Mixed Martial Arts champion a showcase opportunity against an opponent with major name value. Edwards won but somehow continued his knack for failing to inspire much of anyone. For 24 minutes, Edwards handily won in risk-averse fashion while giving the impression he was constantly capable of more, only for Diaz to nearly score a knockout in the last minute and essentially steal all of his thunder. It has worked out where Edwards is the next man up, but this does figure to be a flat culmination of all of his success, both in terms of result and how the fight itself looks to play out.

Edwards’ increasingly cautious style does seem to be all wrong for this matchup. While Edwards is a well-schooled striker, at this point, Usman is more than capable of matching him on his own slow-paced terms, with the champion potentially even being the harder shot-for-shot hitter. Much like the first fight, Edwards’ typical safety valve of the clinch figures to be a non-starter against the most physical force in the welterweight division. Perhaps Edwards decides to pivot and step up in this moment, as Usman appears as vulnerable as ever to someone willing to sell out and pour on a pace. Edwards has the type of knockout power that could score the sudden upset, unlike someone like Covington. However, if he was unwilling to step on the gas pedal against Diaz, he is unlikely to do so here, so this figures to be five rounds of frustration, in part because Usman has adopted his own more well-rounded approach that should clearly separate him from the challenger. When combined with Edwards’ own caution, the champion seems unlikely to end the fight. The pick is Usman via decision.

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