Preview: UFC 250 ‘Nunes vs. Spencer’

Featherweights

Chase Hooper (9-0-1, -150) vs. Alex Caceres (15-12, +130): Somehow, Caceres stuck. He was quite raw when he made his name through his “Bruce Leeroy” persona on “The Ultimate Fighter,” but the UFC remained patient with Caceres through some early losses and saw him turn into one of the most reliably exciting veterans on the roster. He has enjoyed a surprising amount of success. While Caceres has refined his skills, he has still kept the approach of a young and inexperienced fighter, flowing with the fight and throwing whatever offense happens to come to mind in a particular moment. As a result, it feels like Caceres can win or lose to anyone on any given night, and he now finds himself matched the unbeaten Hooper. The UFC definitely has their promotional machine behind Hooper, who at age 20 has some tantalizing skills and some worrying weaknesses. Hooper is absolutely wooden on the feet in a way that, even at his young age, looks like it will always be somewhat of a liability, but once the action spills onto the mat, “The Dream” can leverage his long frame and pull off some impressive submission wizardry. At some point—and it might be relatively soon—Hooper is going to meet a man that absolutely annihilates him, but Caceres probably is not that guy. Caceres is not much of a knockout artist, and worse, he is exactly the type of fighter to go along with Hooper as the younger fighter tries to implement the best parts of his game. The pick is Hooper via first-round submission.

Middleweights

Ian Heinisch (13-3, -120) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (31-12, +100): After a scintillating start to his UFC career, Heinisch badly needs a win, lest he run the risk of burning out as quickly as he arrived on the scene. He has gotten by on a surprisingly pared-down style, doing little but winging aggressive punches on the feet and winning in scrambles once his opponents feel pressured to take things to the mat. That worked wonders in his first two UFC bouts—Cezar Ferreira quickly crumbled under Heinisch’s constant pressure, and Antonio Carlos Jr. was thrown off by an early accidental headbutt and fell right into the Factory X standout’s preferred style—but as well as things went there, his last two fights have gone just as poorly. Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov each stayed measured in their approach. The result? Heinisch simply did not have anything off of which to play, and once Heinisch started shooting for his own takedowns, they were easily defended and left him sputtering. Heinisch is basically in prove-it mode here against Meerschaert, the perennial veteran test of the UFC’s middleweight division. It took Meerschaert years to make it to the UFC, but that gave him the experience to immediately make his name as a prospect killer upon his entrance into the Octagon. Meerschaert has made his own improvement during his time on the UFC roster. While he mostly got by on his aggressive grappling early in his tenure, he has developed enough striking to hang tough with most of the division, even if his lack of athleticism will always hold him back from being a true contender. Meerschaert has shown enough wherewithal to stay composed in the face of Heinisch’s pressure and resist temptation to take things to the ground, but the main question for this fight centers on what happens after that occurs. Heinisch should start shooting for takedowns once Meerschaert refuses to play his game. Can Meerschaert stop those attempts and stall out the action, or can Heinisch suck him into wrestling exchanges and take over the fight? The pick is for Heinisch to be enough of an athlete to eke out a decision victory in a tough-to-call battle.

Featherweights

Cody Stamann (18-2-1, -270) vs. Brian Kelleher (21-10, +230): After missing all of 2019, Kelleher certainly is making up for lost time. This marks his third fight of 2020 and second fight in the last four weeks. Kelleher’s fights are almost always interesting, given that the Long Islander consistently hunts for the finish at the expense of any sort of defense. His first two UFC bouts basically set the tone for the rest of his career, as he tapped Iuri Alcantara in a shade under two minutes and then gave up a quick armbar to Marlon Vera. Kelleher has spent this year staging comeback wins against more athletic prospects, but this time around, he gets a much more proven commodity. Stamann was a late-notice signing to fill out the UFC 213 card in 2017, but after scoring a win over Tom Duquesnoy in his next fight, “The Spartan” established himself as a tough out and a bit of a prospect killer. Stamann is as well-rounded a fighter as you will find, though he does have issues that will likely keep him from being truly among the bantamweight elite. Namely, he is a stocky, one-shot striker with absolutely no finishing power at this level of competition. However, he is both offensively and defensively sound and, most importantly, has a strong wrestling game on which to fall back. It has served him well against flashier prospects: There was the Duquesnoy fight, and many felt Stamann deserved a decision win against Yadong Song in December. Kelleher’s pace and volume may cause some problems on the feet, but once again, Stamann’s wrestling should serve as a safety valve, particularly since he is not the type of defensive sieve to get caught in one of the former Ring of Combat champion’s submissions. The pick is Stamann via decision.

Middleweights

Charles Byrd (10-6, -165) vs. Maki Pitolo (12-5, +145): This should be fun for however long it lasts, as both men are constantly committed to making something happen. Spawned by the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Byrd’s approach is marked by a willingness to charge into the clinch and continually press his offense. That made quick work of John Phillips in his UFC debut, but “Kid Dynamite” has fallen short in last two fights. Darren Stewart managed to mount a surprising comeback and score a finish, while Edmen Shahbazyan knocked out Byrd before their fight ever really got going. After a long injury layoff, Byrd returns against Maki Pitolo, who looks to rebound from a disappointing UFC debut. Pitolo’s “Coconut Bombz” nickname sums up his approach: The Hawaiian looks to throw punches first and ask questions later. However, Australian veteran Callan Potter was surprisingly able to absorb Pitolo’s blows and fight back, grinding out a shocking upset win to spoil his first outing in the Octagon. Byrd can probably control the balance of this fight, but Pitolo should be able to find a finish. The Hawaiian has shown both durability and a willingness to constantly fight back from adversity, and Byrd’s last few fights have raised some concerns about his ability to survive in a back-and-forth firefight. The pick is Pitolo via first-round knockout.

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