Preview: UFC 182 ‘Jones vs. Cormier’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Paul Felder (9-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Danny Castillo (17-7, 7-4 UFC): This is an intriguing matchup of a wrestle-boxer and next-generation sprawl-and-brawler. Castillo has firmly established himself as one of the gatekeepers to the upper tier of the lightweight division, mostly on the basis of his relentless, powerful wrestling and meat-and-potatoes boxing. Felder has outstanding takedown defense, is difficult to keep on his back and does an outstanding job of throwing elbows and punches in transition as his opponents try to take him down. At range, he is a hard puncher and flashy kicker -- think less athletic Daron Cruickshank -- and offers a nice change of pace from the sprawl-and-brawl archetype. While Felder is a substantial underdog at +200, I think he should be able to stuff most of Castillo’s takedowns, punish him on failed attempts and win the striking exchanges. Felder by narrow decision is the pick.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Marcus Brimage (7-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. Cody Garbrandt (5-0, 0-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 14” alum Brimage makes his seventh appearance in the Octagon -- and his third at bantamweight -- against the debuting Garbrandt. Brimage is small for a bantamweight at only 5-foot-4, but he has long limbs and makes good use of rangy kicks and straight punches that his excellent defensive wrestling allows him to implement. Garbrandt is as blue as blue-chip prospects get: He is a big, strong, explosive and powerful kickboxer with excellent takedown defense. He whirls brutal punching combinations and low kicks at range, hard knees in tight and can surprise with the occasional takedown. Moreover, Garbrandt puts in work at Team Alpha Male and in Ohio with friend Lance Palmer, the current World Series of Fighting featherweight champion. Brimage has made real improvements to his game in the recent past, but the debutante is the real deal, and I expect Garbrandt to nail Brimage with a counter shot in the pocket and knock him out in the second round.

HEAVYWEIGHTS

Shawn Jordan (16-6, 4-3 UFC) vs. Jared Cannonier (7-0, 0-0 UFC): Experienced competitor Jordan, who most recently knocked out Jack May in the third round in August, draws the debuting Cannonier in a potential slugfest. Jordan is an excellent athlete and can do a bit of everything, with strong wrestling and big power in his combination punching, but his porous defense makes every fight closer than it needs to be. Cannonier is a surprisingly technical striker, with good body-head combinations, effective head movement and a blitzing, aggressive style that his lack of height -- he stands only 5-foot-11 -- requires. If Jordan can get Cannonier to the ground, he should be able to take this handily, but if he wants to brawl -- as he has been far too willing to do in the past -- the UFC newcomer is perfectly capable of putting him to sleep. The former seems more likely, and the pick is Jordan by second-round knockout.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Evan Dunham (14-6, 7-6 UFC) vs. Rodrigo Damm (12-8, 3-3 UFC): Veteran lightweight and former hot prospect Dunham takes on Damm in a likely loser-leaves-town matchup. Dunham is not a great athlete, but he can do a bit of everything, and his game revolves around pace and pressure in all phases. He throws good volume on the feet from his southpaw stance, wrestles relentlessly and grapples with skill both on top and from his back. Damm holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt but is mostly a striker -- and a fairly decent one. He throws a crisp 1-2 and packs some power in his kicks, and he has made real improvements to his game during his UFC tenure. Still, Damm offers little off his back foot, and given that Dunham will be looking to pressure, that should be to the American’s advantage. Dunham by decision is the pick.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Omari Akhmedov (13-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Mats Nilsson (11-3-1, 0-1 UFC): Sweden’s Nilsson drops to welterweight in his second UFC outing and draws Akhmedov, who lost his last bout to decorated grappler Gunnar Nelson. Akhmedov, a native of Dagestan, is a tremendous athlete and an offensive powerhouse. He throws brutal kicks, punches hard, chain wrestles with aplomb and can bomb away with punishing ground strikes and snag the occasional submission. He is extremely hittable, however, and is not great at defending takedowns or working from his back. Nilsson is a well-rounded and aggressive veteran who can strike reasonably well but really excels at wrestling and top control, with a nice mixture of strikes, passes and submissions; his use of knees to the body on the ground is notable. Akhmedov will have enormous advantages in speed and power, while Nilsson is likely the better technician. I will go with physicality here and take Akhmedov by knockout in the second round.

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS

Alexis Dufresne (5-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Marion Reneau (4-1, 0-0 UFC): Dufresne returns to action against UFC newcomer Marion Reneau after dropping a controversial decision to Sarah Moras in her debut. Dufresne is an enormous bantamweight at 5-foot-9 and packs big power in her strikes to go along with strong takedown and top games. Reneau is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion at purple belt and has a fairly decent striking game, all of which is made better by her plus athleticism and power. While both women are solid prospects, I like Dufresne’s size and continuous learning curve to get her a decision victory.

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