Preview: UFC on ESPN 31 ‘Font vs. Aldo’

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Middleweights

NR | Brendan Allen (17-4, 5-1 UFC) vs. NR | Chris Curtis (27-8, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Allen (-350), Curtis (+290)

Still somehow just 25 years old, Allen remains one of the middleweight division’s more interesting prospects. Allen came to the UFC in 2019 with a strong resume, but his approach figured to have a clear ceiling moving up a level in competition. “All In” has historically been content to just swamp his opponents with messy aggression, usually in the form of constant grappling exchanges that score him a submission or some advantageous positions. Through three UFC bouts, that approach worked shockingly well, with wins over Kevin Holland, Tom Breese and Kyle Daukaus each taking place in impressive fashion. While Sean Strickland absolutely blew apart Allen’s game at the seams, it appears that he has learned some lessons and made some adjustments. After a rebound win over Karl Roberson, Allen did not pursue his wrestling or grappling much at all against Punahele Soriano and still walked away with a clear decision. This was initially a shot for Allen to break into the UFC’s rankings against Brad Tavares, but with some late changes, he instead draws an absolutely fascinating matchup against Curtis.

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The 34-year-old Curtis made good on a UFC debut over a decade in the making in November, as a globetrotting career and Dana White’s Contender Series snub all eventually led to his knocking out Phil Hawes at UFC 268. The fight also summed up the Curtis experience. He is prone to swaths of inactivity or straight up just losing the fight, but he is always capable of turning around a situation in sudden and brutal fashion, just as he did against Hawes. Curtis very rarely gets finished, so the combination of his low-output savvy and Allen’s high-volume aggression makes for an interesting clash of styles, particularly with the latter’s approach now in question. If that performance against Soriano is a sign of Allen wanting to focus on his striking, it may get him clipped with something significant against Curtis. However, even if Allen goes back to his grappling-heavy ways, he will also have to walk a bit of a tightrope, as Curtis figures to find his way back to his feet, where he can cause some more damage. All in all, there is not really a clean approach for Allen to get a win when compared to some of his previous opponents. With that said, the bet is that Allen’s durability sees him through all 15 minutes of this fight—Strickland’s knockout win was more attritional than due to any sort of massive moment of offense—and that his pace can win him at least two rounds, even if this is a rough matchup. The pick is Allen via decision.

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