Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Bantamweights

John Dodson (18-8) vs. Eddie Wineland (23-11-1)

THE MATCHUP: For many years, Wineland has been one of the most underrated fighters in the sport, and in many ways, Dodson has been overrated. Objectively, the two men are quite similar. Knockout punchers, they rely on athleticism, speed and power, often outmaneuvering and countering their opponents. Wineland looked like he was on the way out when he followed a jaw-shattering knockout loss to Renan Barao with a thoroughly flat performance against Bryan Caraway. The rugged wrestler easily outstruck Wineland and compelled him to take a year off from competition. Since returning, however, Wineland has scored two impressive knockout wins over respectable opponents, proving that he is not done yet.

Wineland’s style has always been boxing-based. He rarely kicks, he rarely shoots unless he is off-balance and his grappling game is centered almost entirely on the goal of returning to his feet as quickly as possible. Despite these self-imposed limitations, Wineland cuts the figure of a complete fighter. His takedown defense and scrambling are both ironclad. Caraway surprised everyone by outstriking Wineland, but he still failed to get him down despite attempting 12 takedowns. In the last eight years, only Urijah Faber and Frankie Saenz have managed to put Wineland on his back with wrestling. Wineland moves his feet very well and tends to keep a low guard in order to draw his opponents into striking exchanges that, bizarre performances aside, rarely favor them. Fourteen of Wineland’s 23 wins have been knockouts, and he has the second-highest number of knockdowns in UFC bantamweight history, surpassed only by Cody Garbrandt. Wineland’s best strike is his straight right hand, and he can set it up with combinations or land it on the counter with equal skill.

A longtime flyweight, Dodson will have a three-inch reach disadvantage, but he will almost certainly prefer to keep a longer distance. When I said Dodson has been overrated during his UFC career, I did not mean that he is not an elite fighter. Rather, fans often misunderstand the nature of Dodson’s game. Though he is a puncher every bit as powerful as Wineland, he is less capable of forcing his fight on his opponents. Dodson has shown a tendency to coast when his foes refuse to engage, and he is much more likely than Wineland to turn in a tedious performance if the knockout does not materialize. In his most recent bout, however, Dodson showed some promising new wrinkles, likely the result of working with trainer Brandon Gibson, who has taken on an increasingly important role at the world-famous Jackson-Wink MMA Academy. Faced with the hard-hitting and ridiculously durable John Lineker, Dodson displayed new levels of defensive skill and cage craft. He navigated the Octagon like never before, threw a greater number of combinations rather than hunting for single strikes and used his wrestling game to neutralize some of Lineker’s relentless pressure. Though the decision did not go his way, Dodson evaded 72 percent of Lineker’s significant strikes and even outlanded him slightly.

Wineland’s height and reach should come in handy in this fight. He is less likely to run circles around the Octagon the way Dodson does, but he will look to cut tight angles and counter “The Magician” on the way in, all while probing with his jab at range. On the other hand, Dodson is a more prolific kicker. With his feet planted to prioritize punching power and form, Wineland has often been vulnerable to kicks. Such a tactic could go a long way toward neutralizing his longer arms, and if Dodson can put up the kind of output he displayed in the Lineker fight, we will have a close fight on our hands.

THE ODDS: Dodson (-415), Wineland (+325)

THE PICK: With his last two wins, Wineland proved he has something more to offer the sport of mixed martial arts. He remains quick and difficult to take down, and it is looking more and more like the loss to Caraway was an unfortunate anomaly for the Hoosier hitter. Stylistically, however, this matchup seems to favor Dodson. So long as he can avoid falling into any extended lulls, his unmatched speed of foot and hand should allow him to dart in and out of Wineland’s range without incurring too much damage. He probably will not manage to take down Wineland, but his wrestling game will help him to thwart the former World Extreme Cagefighting champion’s aggression and keep the counterpuncher guessing. Meanwhile, his powerful kicks will give him the edge in ranges where Wineland’s jab would otherwise win the day. Dodson by unanimous decision is the pick.

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