Preview: UFC 256 Main Card

Middleweights #15 MW | Kevin Holland (20-5, 7-2 UFC) vs. NR | Ronaldo Souza (26-8, 9-5 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-130), Souza (+110)

Holland has been one of the standouts in this pandemic-era of the UFC, and he gets the chance at a huge breakthrough win here. He has been an obvious talent since he made his way to the Octagon, but Holland has almost been a cautionary tale on the dangers of creativity. Rather than fight to any set game plan, Holland feels out the situation and throws whatever technique comes to mind; this is a man who started his UFC career by attempting a flying omoplata against Thiago Santos, after all. However, that improvisational nature has made Holland one of the UFC’s most entertaining fighters, particularly during these cards without fans, where his constant trash talk can be picked up by the broadcast. Holland has also been a fighter who has taken advantage of the ramshackle nature of matchmaking in 2020, stepping in wherever he is needed. This marks his fifth fight since cards returned in May. Keeping up a schedule has also seemed to keep Holland in a groove. While there is still a lot of wildness in his approach, he has shown a bit more of a willingness to stick to something once he finds a technique that works. Holland has done enough this year to get rewarded with a major opportunity, and while this is not the main-event slot from which he was pulled due to COVID-19 a week ago, it is still a shot at a huge win against a legend of the division in “Jacare” Souza.

Souza is obviously slowing down at this point, but this should be a solid litmus test to see exactly where he stands in his return to middleweight. “Jacare” was clearly one of the best 185-pounders in the world for most of this decade, building a pressuring and powerful striking game to supplement the lethal submission skills that gave him his nickname. However, since coming over from Strikeforce in 2013, Souza always found himself on the outside looking in when it came to the title picture, as there was seemingly always someone else in line to get the opportunity to fight for the belt. Losses to Robert Whittaker in 2017 and Kelvin Gastelum in 2018 were the first signs that Souza was falling behind a new generation of fighters, and while he rebounded with definitive victories in each case, that paved the way for a particularly rough 2019 campaign. Jack Hermansson took a surprisingly one-sided main event win over Souza, even holding his own and sometimes getting the better of their exchanges on the mat. That led the Brazilian to try a one-off move up to 205 pounds that is best forgotten. While a loss to Jan Blachowicz looks a lot better now that he is the light heavyweight champion, it was a slow affair that saw Souza look ineffective against a larger opponent. Thanks to the pandemic and a positive COVID-19 test in May, Souza has been out of action for the past year. Now 41 years old, it is time to prove that he is still a going concern at middleweight.

Holland certainly has a path to victory, but the question in cases like this is whether or not he will actually take it. If this fight stays standing, this becomes Holland’s fight to lose, as he is at his best as a rangy and fast-handed striker and should have little trouble picking apart a now-plodding Souza. However, there are number of ways for Holland to walk directly into the mouth of the proverbial alligator. He tends to crash into his opponents a lot when throwing together his combinations, which offers an excellent chance for Souza to grab him and go to work. There is also Holland’s general overconfidence in his own abilities. His lone UFC middleweight loss to Brendan Allen was a clear case in which Holland was confident he could engage Allen in grappling exchanges on Allen’s terms and wound up getting caught in a fight-ending choke as a result. With that said, Hermansson showed that a confident grappler can get out of trouble against this version of Souza, and Holland is nothing if not confident. There will surely be moments where the “Trailblazer” makes this more difficult than it needs to be, but the pick is Holland via decision.

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