Featherweights
Jose Aldo (28-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (19-1)Advertisement
After a rough patch, it is comforting to see that Aldo’s career looks like it will have a soft landing. Through 2014, he was the unquestioned featherweight king and turned away all comers without much trouble, which made it all the more stunning when a year-long build in 2015 ended with Conor McGregor knocking out the champion in just 13 seconds. McGregor then moved up to lightweight, giving Aldo the opportunity to regain his crown after a win over Frankie Edgar, but in short order, a new challenger appeared to hand Aldo a defeat, as Max Holloway stepped up to win two straight fights against him in one-sided fashion. Thankfully, the last year-plus has proven that Aldo still ranks among the divisional elite and has a Holloway problem rather than being completely shot as a fighter. Aldo also seems a bit reborn now that he only has three rounds with which to work instead of five. Holloway mostly took advantage of Aldo by running down his gas tank in deeper waters, but now that the Brazilian no longer needs to conserve himself for the championship rounds, he has been willing to throw down and successfully sought finishes against Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. As great as Aldo’s recent renaissance has been, it is also difficult to say what it means in the grand scheme of things. A Holloway trilogy fight is not particularly interesting, and Aldo himself has said that he wishes to retire at the end of the year, so from a promotional standpoint, it seems a bit odd to have him pickoff up-and-coming contenders if there is no grand culmination at the end of this winning streak. In a fight-by-fight sense, it is still fun to see, so the time has come for Volkanovski to try and step up to become the first man in the UFC to beat Aldo in a non-title fight.
Volkanovski has been ridiculously impressive, particularly given where expectations were at the start. It is often safe to bet against wrestlers coming out of Australia, but Volkanovski has been the exception to the rule. Thanks to injuries and late replacement opponents, it took a bit for Volkanovski’s UFC career to truly get going, but once his 2018 win against Jeremy Kennedy proved that his ground-and-pound worked at a high level, it has been off to the races. The last two fights have seen “Alexander the Great” pick up a few torches that have been handed off. Volkanovski went nose-to-nose with Darren Elkins and came out ahead to prove himself as the featherweight grinder supreme, then scored a December win over Chad Mendes to establish himself as the division’s premier undersized wrestle-boxer. A lot has been made of Anzac MMA hitting its peak and the inevitable Robert Whittaker-Israel Adesanya clash coming later this year. With a win here, Volkanovski may net a title shot and might be able to join them on that card.
It has been thrilling to see Volkanovski come into his own as an unexpected but legitimate contender, but it is difficult to pick against three-round Aldo as long as he is fighting at this level. Holloway managed to beat Aldo by picking up the pace until the Brazilian legend just could not catch up, and while Volkanovski should still have the advantage in terms of gas tank, he is probably not going to give Aldo enough offense to make the former champ think and start to wear himself out. Volkanovski’s wrestling represents an interesting curveball in this equation, as it is not an absolute given that Aldo will be able to stop it. However, the Brazilian has shown enough throughout the years in that department that his takedown defense deserves the benefit of the doubt; and if this becomes a pure striking match, Aldo still has the skills and the power to win rounds and cause damage, if not unleash a blitz to put down his opponent for the third straight fight. Volkanovski has proven to be durable, so there is a good chance he sticks around and probably even starts taking over by the end of the bout, thought it could be a case of too little too late. The pick is Aldo by decision.
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