He remains one of the brightest young talents in the sport, but it
will be interesting to see how Tsarukyan rebounds from an
unexpected speed bump during his march up the lightweight ladder.
Tsarukyan was marked as a potential future champion even before he
made his UFC debut in 2019, and he acquitted himself well in a
ridiculously tough spot, losing a decision to Islam
Makhachev in his first trip to the Octagon. That still might be
the toughest win of the current lightweight champion’s UFC career,
and Tsarukyan continued to prove himself as a top-level fighter,
developing his striking to complement his strong wrestling and
rising to the moment with finishes against Christos
Giagos and Joel
Alvarez. That earned Tsarukyan his first UFC main event in June
opposite fellow underrated lightweight Mateusz
Gamrot, which turned out to be an excellent fight with a
controversial decision. Tsarukyan proved himself as the more
effective striker even as he tired down the stretch. However,
Gamrot’s constant ability to find takedowns earned him the
scorecards despite Tsarukyan clearly causing more damage. At any
rate, the performance did not do much to hurt Tsarukyan’s stock,
and he looks to get his momentum rolling once again against
Ismagulov, who might be the most underrated fighter on the UFC
roster. The Russian can hold his own just about anywhere but works
with a cautious style built around neutralizing his opponents. It
is an approach that would still likely lead to a finish if
Ismagulov was more of a dynamic athlete, but as it stands, it
usually means he is walking a bit of a tightrope, as his opponents
usually wind up having the biggest moments of the fight even as he
puts together a clear decision victory. Injuries have limited
Ismagulov to two fights since 2019—another reason his success has
not resulted in much momentum—so it is nice to see him get a big
opportunity. Tsarukyan can use his athleticism and aggression as a
bit of a blunt instrument at times, and Ismagulov is the type of
precise fighter that can keep him at bay with some well-placed
strikes. Ismagulov is also a solid wrestler, so there is a chance
he can play matador for the better part of three rounds and find a
victory, but it is likelier that Tsarukyan finds some point of
success over 15 minutes to turn the fight in his favor. While
Tsarukyan can become reliant on that pressure and aggression, he is
often right to do so. The pick is Tsarukyan via decision.
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