Preview: UFC Fight Night 119 ‘Brunson vs. Machida’

Welterweight

Colby Covington (12-1) vs. Demian Maia (25-7)

ODDS: Covington (-135), Maia (+115)

ANALYSIS: Maia turns 40 in two weeks and is fresh off a horrific UFC welterweight title challenge against Tyron Woodley at UFC 214 in July during which he went 0-for-21 in the takedown department. Are many people picking Maia to win in his hometown? No. After all, his showdown with Covington has many of the same traits that made his Woodley fight such a disaster. Covington-Maia is not just a style clash; it is a personality clash, too. That is why so many people would love to see Maia pull off the upset.

In a division replete with young and exciting talent, Covington is one of the welterweight class’ best and brightest. In addition to his 7-1 record inside the Octagon, Covington is aggressive and bolshie outside of it, beyond the point of usual trash talk. He was a problem child before MMA. After winning a national junior college wrestling title at Iowa Central Community College, he secured a spot at the powerhouse University of Iowa, only to be kicked off the squad a year later because he could not stop getting into altercations, incidents, fights and other appropriate synonyms. He later transferred home to Oregon State University. There is no wink-wink element to the nasty things he says, ala Conor McGregor, and no piss-taking or ball-busting element, ala Michael Bisping. “Chaos” is a perfect nickname for this man, as he seems to genuinely thrive on being mean-spirited in and out of the cage, an athlete who has weaponized his worst traits for the better.

On the other hand, there is a reason no one holds Maia’s woeful Woodley performance and his similarly terrible April 2010 UFC middleweight title challenge with Anderson Silva against him. Yes, he is a gi and no-gi grappling sage, but that is not enough to insulate you from the mockery of the MMA world. No, it is because Maia is an ambassador for the sport nearly to the point of parody, a true gentleman and sportsman in MMA if there ever was one. If MMA had a Lady Byng Trophy, he would win it every year.

I bring up these things because it speaks to both Covington’s talent and Maia’s professionalism that people have not trashed this fight en masse, as it is abundantly clear what sort of fight it will be. There is a chance that Covington gets careless or arrogant, a la the Warlley Alves fight, and gets tapped; or despite being the superior wrestler, maybe he runs into a lateral drop like the one with which Maia hurled Chael Sonnen; or maybe he just flashes his back for one second, which is all Maia needs. However, Covington is a truly outstanding wrestler with respect to both technique and athleticism, especially in the MMA context. His dirty boxing is nasty and his distance striking skills continue to improve, as shown in his rocking Dong Hyun Kim with an overhand left from range.

Covington attempts seven takedowns per 15 minutes, the highest rate in the entire promotion, but that wrestling will be working in reverse this time around. Maia has been held without a single takedown on five occasions in the Octagon, and he has lost all five of those bouts. This will be the sixth, as “Chaos” keeps things uncharacteristically conservative, hunting and pecking cautiously on the feet, sprawling when necessary and uncorking left hands to win a lackluster 15-minute Woodley facsimile. At least Covington will have the post-fight interview to go on the offensive.

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