Weekend Primer: ‘Ultimate Fighter’ Finale, WEC 49

If there’s one story that stands out among the weekend’s six hours of fight programming, it’s the idea of Keith Jardine having one foot on the mat and the other dangling off the cliff.

Jardine, an “Ultimate Fighter 2” runner-up from 2005, has had his share of quality wins: he knocked out Forrest Griffin, outpointed Chuck Liddell and shut down a prospect in Brandon Vera. But the Vera bout was nearly two years ago, and it represents Jardine’s last win. He’s 0-3 since, including two stoppage losses. If the UFC has a violence quota, he’s falling pretty far down the leaderboard.

Loss number four against Matt Hamill Saturday would be in pretty flagrant violation of Octagon expectations. Jardine doesn’t need a pretty win -- and can rarely deliver one anyway -- but he does need to defend his job. If he fights like he’s aware of that, he could be involved in one of the weekend’s better bouts.

What: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale, a nine-bout card from the Pearl at the Palms in Las Vegas live on Spike at 9 p.m. ET Saturday; World Extreme Cagefighting 49, an 11-bout card from Rexall Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, live on Versus at 9 p.m. ET Sunday

Why You Should Watch: Because the ‘TUF’ card has at least two go-for-broke fighters in Chris Leben and Spencer Fisher; because you’re either looking for Jamie Yager to deliver a beating or sustain one; because on the WEC’s end, Jamie Varner and Kamal Shalorus can only disappoint if the arena power goes out; and because doing anything but watching television is highly overrated.

Fight of the Weekend: Varner/Shalorus, with Varner looking to rebound from a tough loss to Benson Henderson and Shalorus looking to top off his unblemished record with a win over a valued name in the WEC’s 155 lb. division.

Hype Quote of the Shows: “It’s like looking in the mirror. We’re the same size, he likes the weights, I like the donuts, but everything else we’re pretty much even on.” -- Fisher, on opponent Dennis Siver, to UFC.com.

5 Questions: ‘Ultimate Fighter 11’ Finale and WEC 49

Is winning ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ trophy still a big deal?

Despite the learn-as-they-go production nature of “The Ultimate Fighter” in its early seasons, the series still managed to produce a sizable number of relevant athletes in different divisions. Season one winner Forrest Griffin held the light heavyweight title; Josh Koscheck contends for a belt soon. Season two’s Rashad Evans has only lost once; Michael Bisping is a valuable UK headliner.

Get past the first three seasons and that roster support begins to thin out. Nate Diaz and Mac Danzig have been on the bubble; Ryan Bader looks like a monster but hasn’t proven it against top competition yet. The stigma over being a “reality TV fighter” may be over, but with as many disappointing winners as contenders, it hasn’t been replaced with anything else.

What is Mark DellaGrotte going to do for Spencer Fisher?

There are two outcomes to uprooting your life and submitting your body to a new training camp: you’ll either benefit from the new environment, or you’ll be contorted into a style that doesn’t suit you.

In packing his bags for Mark DellaGrotte’s gym in Massachusetts, Spencer Fisher is going to be exposed to a lot of kickboxing. Not being a kickboxer by trade but a heavy-handed slugger, he’ll either add to his ammunition or confuse and dilute the talent that brought him three straight wins before a loss to Joe Stevenson last October.

Is Jamie Yager a product of reality television’s influence?

Who can know the real Jamie Yager? Due to either strategic editing or strategic posturing, Yager came off as “The Ultimate Fighter’s” star antagonist, a role that’s led to recurring employment for past instigators like Junie Allen Browning and Josh Koscheck.

It’s gotten to the point where the past rewards for bad behavior have to have some influence on cast members that follow. If Yager is secretly working soup kitchens in his off-hours, it’s another bit of evidence that “reality television” is only as real as producers allow.

Is the WEC’s 155 lb. class creating consumer confusion?

Unless casual fans sit down to think about it, there’s a real redundancy in having two Zuffa-endorsed 155 lb. champions on television. In a WEC pay per view (without a trace of the WEC brand) last month, Benson Henderson retained his title; a month prior, Frankie Edgar obtained the UFC’s 155 lb. title. Are we supposed to value one more than the other?

The UFC’s spinoff promotion works when it’s clearly distinguishable from its bigger brother: namely, highlighting the 145 lb. and under weight divisions. Having Henderson and Edgar carry two belts only winds up tarnishing both.

Is weight cutting out of control?

Josh Grispi, who fights L.C. Davis Sunday, is a 145 lb. featherweight who can ride any theme park attraction he wants: he walks at 172 lbs, larger than some lightweights. While cutting 25 lbs. isn’t unusual for bigger men, slicing that much off your weight when you’re in the WEC’s lighter divisions is some kind of feat.

Grispi is only playing the system to his advantage, but his body’s ability to endure that kind of radical recomposition gives his opponents another problem. Dehydration might be winning as many fights as skill.

Red Ink: Hamill vs. Jardine

More than anyone in the UFC’s 205 lb. division, Keith Jardine represents the idea of a blue-collar laborer. He alternates wins and losses with regularity, he’s a muted presence in media, and his style is completely without grace. Compared with the hyper and video game-influenced performances of some of his peers, Jardine is the fighter equivalent of an art film.

Matt Hamill isn’t much of a contradiction: a wrestler from Utica, he’s engendered some ready-made affection for the perception of a deaf athlete overcoming adversity in a highly dangerous career. That wrestling pedigree usually goes out the window when he chooses to stand up, which would likely be Jardine’s preference. It’s not a high-profile fight, but fans may find more to recognize in both than in the athletes finding fame and fortune further on up the ladder.

What it Means: For Hamill, a chance to wash out the taste of a disqualification “win” against Jon Jones; for Jardine, a chance to escape the heat of four straight losses and the very real threat of being given his walking papers.

Wild Card: The vague idea of a cracked chin being an unreliable chin: Jardine has been put down in two of his last three.

Who Wins: Hamill’s grindhouse striking style is a perfect fit for Jardine, but he can take the fight into his waters on the ground anytime he wants: Hamill by TKO.

Red Ink: Varner/Shalorus

Excuses are as necessary a part of fighting sports as cups and hand wraps, but some resonate more than others. When Jamie Varner fought Benson Henderson in January, most expected his takedown defense and striking to be to his advantage. Instead, Henderson skyrocketed his career by sinking a choke in the third.

Either Henderson is that much better or Varner’s personal issues -- his mother was diagnosed with cervical cancer prior to the fight -- infected his thinking. Whatever the case, he has a chance to reassert himself as a contender for Henderson with a win over Kamal Shalorus, an undefeated boulder of a wrestler who plans to match his tenacity with Varner’s A-minus striking game.

What it Means: A likely crack at Henderson’s title.

Wild Card: Shalorus, 7-0, is getting an expedited trip to the upper level of the WEC’s lightweight division. He might not have cured all of the mistakes that come from a handful of trips to the ring.

Who Wins: Varner has too many tools for Shalorus: if his head is on straight, he takes it via decision.